I took this picture of 2 adult black swans and their 4 cygnets yesterday in Motueka, New Zealand.
I wonder if Taleb, author of the Black Swan book and metaphor, realises that real black swans start out grey ... just like white swans do.
I wonder that because my wife and I left Ireland in 2000 (partly) because I "knew" the housing bubble was going to burst. I figured it would take 3 or 4 years, not 8-10. When the economy collapsed, a lot of people weren't surprised ... though many were.
That black swan wasn't as black as it seemed.