Clarke Ching - More Chilli Please

Good Taleb interview

Nassim Taleb comes across as an arrogant plonker who knows a lot.  Maybe he's got cause to be arrogant; maybe he hasn't.  I liked the ideas in his Black Swan book even though I found it hard to read, chaotic at times, and, well, I confess, I never finished it.  His "style" puts me off his substance, although, now that I think about it, he reminds me a lot of a friend I knew years ago who was bi-polar, so now I feel bad for discussing his style, rather than his substance.

You can read a very well written article about him on The Times.  

This bit stood out:

For the non-mathematician, probability is an indecipherably complex field. But Taleb makes it easy by proving all the mathematics wrong. Let me introduce you to Brooklyn-born Fat Tony and academically inclined Dr John, two of Taleb’s creations. You toss a coin 40 times and it comes up heads every time. What is the chance of it coming up heads the 41st time? Dr John gives the answer drummed into the heads of every statistic student: 50/50. Fat Tony shakes his head and says the chances are no more than 1%. “You are either full of crap,” he says, “or a pure sucker to buy that 50% business. The coin gotta be loaded.”

The chances of a coin coming up heads 41 times are so small as to be effectively impossible in this universe. It is far, far more likely that somebody is cheating. Fat Tony wins. Dr John is the sucker. And the one thing that drives Taleb more than anything else is the determination not to be a sucker. Dr John is the economist or banker who thinks he can manage risk through mathematics. Fat Tony relies only on what happens in the real world.

7.5 things I'd do if I were president of the world

1.  I'd bring back Studio 60, give them government money if need be, force them to rewrite the silly ending, then commission series 2 and 3.  I'd make the pillocks who canned the series apologise. [I'd do the same with Deadwood.  I'd restart MASH with the original characters.  I'd burn every single copy (burn as in destroy, not put on a dvd) of the last series of the West Wing.  I'd like another 5 seriese of "The Wire", but I respect the decision to stop while they're on top.
2.  I'd recall every single DVD player ever sold and get the manufacturers to add a "skip the shite" button which takes you straight past all the unwanted adverts, the insults and accusations that you may be a thief, and any sort of fancy, self-indulgent dvd-designer stuff.  I buy the DVD to watch the movie or TV show ... not to be told I'm a theif.  I'd also force movie theatres to put up a 10 second message which says, "Hey, you paid to watch this movie, so you're probably not a thief!  Thanks!  We appreciate your business and hope you enjoy this movie".
3.  I'd take all Dublin based taxi owners (not the drivers, the owners), put them in a helicopter, strip them naked, drop them in Athlone and force them to walk home naked.  Dublin Taxi service may be better now than it was in the 1990s and it takes a lot to get me riled, but you guys sucked.  No offence to the drivers - you were just paid to do your jobs.  Since many of the taxi owners were also the politicians who kept the taxi monopoloy in place ...
4.  I'd institute an outright ban (i.e. "I'd ban ...") on those nasty spot light lights which might look fancy, but do a crap job of lighting my house.  Form over function, indeed.  I'd also insist that only 1 type of lightbulb connection ever be used: it'd be the bayonett type, like we had in the old days.
5.  I'd ban diabetes and scrabble and I'd have Michael Moore publically flogged for being such a hypocryte.
5.5 I'd ban spelling nazies and muffin tops and I'd find a good wife for my friend GT.
6.  I'd create an international chain of public funded "soft play" centres for adults.  No children allowed.  No hippies either.  Vegetarians okay, but not vegans. 
7.  I'd make Steve Jobs put proper keyboard navigation on his MacBooks (like Windows does) and I'd make them include David Pogue's mac missing manual in the mac box and a few "how to switch from windows" videos.

Features vs. Useability

If you don't know who Don Norman is then go read this: http://www.jnd.org/dn.mss/simplicity_is_not_th.html.  Trust me here.  If you like the other stuff on this blog then you'll enjoy reading Don Norman's stuff.  He writes and consults about good design and useability.

From the Washington Post, which asked readers to tell them about a time when the lesson learned was not the lesson taught:

When my son Stephen was 3, the most difficult life lessons he'd had to learn were along the lines of: If you wait too long to eat your ice cream cone, it will melt all over your hands and eventually fall over onto the sidewalk.

But the day came when I had to talk to him about the Big One: death. Mr. Fishy, Stephen's pet goldfish, had been floating on top of the water in his small tank when my son woke up that morning.

"What's wrong with Mr. Fishy, Mommy?" Stephen asked as I prepared breakfast. He was doing his usual fine job of sprinkling around goldfish food, except this time the fish wasn't, uh, biting.

"Oh, no," I thought, while Stephen -- attempting to coax the dead goldfish into eating -- pushed Mr. Fishy around with his finger.

How to explain the complexities of pet death to my innocent son?

"Um, Stephen, well, it's like this," I said, crouching down, hands on my son's shoulders. "Mr. Fishy doesn't get hungry anymore. He can't eat anymore. He can't swim anymore. He doesn't breathe anymore." My eyes filled with tears as my son looked at me solemnly. I took a deep breath.

"He . . . he isn't alive anymore, Stephen. Do you understand what I'm saying, sweetheart?"

Stephen took one last look at the tank.

"Yes, Mommy," he said in a serious tone. "We need to get a new fish."

TGFI

TGFI = Thank god For Ipods

HSM3 sounds much better when masked by Bruce Springsteen.

TGFBBB = Thank god for BlackBerry Bold

HSM3 looks much better when reading Harvard Business Review pdfs on a blackberry.

My daughter is loving the movie. Nearly finished and she's still got some icecream left.
Sent using my BlackBerry Bold - the thinking man's iphone. www.clarkeching.com +44(0)7920114893 Clarke Ching - Author of "Rolling Rocks Downhill" ... a business novel about software development; coming soon from the Pragmatic Bookshelf.

Role reversal

From The Telegraph:

Ancient Egyptians multiplied using binary

The BBC maths program told us that the Egyptions multiplied using a binary system. 

Here's how it worked: http://gwydir.demon.co.uk/jo/numbers/egypt/multiply.htm

UK Only - The Story of Maths

Nerdish?  Perhaps.  Interesting?  Definitely.

If you live in the UK then you can click below and watch the BBC's rather interesting "Story of Maths".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00dxjls

You've got 15 days to go.

Strengths - The Truth about you

I'm a big fan of Marcus Buckingham's work.  He's the "strengths" guy who co-wrote "Now consider your strengths".  I read that book, did the online strengthsfinder quiz, and shortly afterwards I changed my entire approach to work (and therefore, for me, life). 

His new book, The Truth About You, is out now and it's very good.  Unlike his earlier books which were clearly aimed at business folk (especially HR folk), this one is aimed at high school and college students who are about to head off into the big wide world (and their know-it-all older relatives who'll give it to them as a gift).  It comes with a 20 minute movie, on DVD, which elegantly sums up the entire strengths philosophy.  I wish I'd been able to watch it 20 years ago - I suspect I'd be a whole lot more successful today if I had.  Minor regrets aside, I'm glad I watched it now and I'm glad I read the book. It's easier to read and absorb than the earlier books. 

It is a very, very valuable book.  It's the perfect gift for the 21 year old in your life or even the 30- or 40-something who's feeling a little lost at work.  It's the sort of book you give to someone you care about.

Disclosure: The book's publishers sent me a freebie copy of the book so there may be some subtle bias going on here ...

Seth Godin's new book, Tribes, only 95 pence ...

I'm not sure if this is a mistake or a cunning buzz building pricing decision, but Itunes is currently selling Seth Godin's brand new book Tribes for only 95 pence.  If I were you ... I'd get clicking.