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July 22, 2004

Waterfall logic - cost of change again.

If

  • (a medium-sized project with absolutely no change takes X days to complete) and
  • (about 25% of requirements change on the average medium project - according to Boehm and others) and
  • (lets say the average change, using Boehm's cost of change curve, takes 50 times the effort to change - it might be more, it might be less, depends when it happens)

then

  • a medium-sized project with 25% change takes 13.5X days to complete [i.e. X + (.25 * 50) X = X + 12.5X]

Therefore, if we want the shortest project possible then we must prevent change up-front.  Even if it takes a bit longer to get it right.  If only that were possible.

 

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